"Goodstatesmen Unthinkful Oldspeak!"
"Goodstatesmen Unthinkful Oldspeak!"
American double-speak over China & Taiwan is nauseatingly transparent
Watching U.S. and Chinese saber-rattling over Taiwan has been interesting lately.
In late May, U.S. President Joe Biden declared that the United States would intervene militarily if Mainland China invaded Taiwan. While this is in line with what is commonly assumed, it is a punch to the face of America's "strategic ambiguity" policy over Taiwan. That seems a lot less surprising at a time when advisors within the Biden White House have been making noises about a "post-neoliberal foreign policy" in Washington.
American acceptance of the One China Policy, beginning in 1979, has been an artifact of U.S.-Chinese trade relations. Those trade relations were predicated on assumptions about the impact of trade on governments and societies that have not born fruit over the decades. So, if America is moving beyond a position of purely seeking out new markets under the presumption that doing so will expand liberal models of civil-government discourse, it would make a lot of sense for the U.S. to scrap strategic ambiguity.
And so, it was a little surprising when White House Aides began to walk back the President's statement one week after the Joe Biden's unequivocal affirmation of America's defensive position in the South China Sea. These aides reiterated the typical American double-speak on the matter and reaffirmed the One China. How this meshes with so-called Post-neoliberalism is anybody's guess.
Just today, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe declared that China would "fight to the very end" to halt any assertion of China's independence. This is in line with China's recent policy turn. Xi Jinping's assertion of "National rejuvenation" has driven up Beijing's heavy-handedness in quashing autonomy in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Given China's military maneuvers in the South China Sea, general Wei's statement is not surprising.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's national limbo exists primarily in the abstract. Beijing may view it as a rogue province. America may view it as a potentially costly military commitment. However, Taipei's dominant political attitude leans toward Taiwan's status as an independent country.
Does a profoundly costly Pacific war loom over the horizon? I don't know, and I can't honestly answer that question. But I believe the United States and China, in their threats to make good on their positions, should things go to guns. It would just be nice if America stopped playing word games around it.
1. https://thehill.com/news/administration/3497693-biden-us-would-defend-taiwan-militarily-if-china-invaded/
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/briefing/trade-deal-biden-asia.html
4. https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/12/asia/us-china-defense-shangri-la-dialogue-intl-hnk-ml/index.html