What Makes an Independence Movement Successful?
Jon B. Alterma's Eight Factors for Independence Movement Success
In his 2019 CSIS brief, Independence Movements and Their Aftermath Evaluating the Likelihood of Success, Jon B. Alterman posited that independence movements need to look at eight factors to measure the ability for success.
These eight factors are worth taking a closer look at. I'll attempt to go over them now briefly. Then I want to look at three real-world independence movements to see how they stack up against these factors. This isn't going to be too deep of a dive into this, as I just don't have the time to put into it tonight. But I still think it's interesting to think about, if only briefly.
The eight factors that make or break independence movement success?
The International Environment - Will the international community be friendly to this new country once independent?
The Regional Environment - Does the new country have friends among its neighbors, or is it alone, or worse, surrounded by enemies?
Economics - Can the new country look out for the material well-being of its population?
Politics - Can the same party who led the breaking away from the old government run a new one?
Leadership Quality - Can leaders rally the public and build ties to the rest of the world?
Institutional Quality - Does the new country have the basic infrastructure to run a society's essential daily functions?
The Security Context - Will the means by which the new country came into being become a threat to its long-term survival?
Local Social Issues - Can the new country build social unity in a population that just broke with another state?
That all seems pretty straightforward. Much of it even looks pretty intuitive.
Now, let's take a look at three different rich-world independence movements and snap-assess them on these eight factors:
Scotland: 7/8
Setting aside all of the complications of whether or not it can or will happen, let's look at Scottish independence by way of referendum. On its face, I have a hard time seeing the international community being significantly opposed to such a move. An independent Scotland would also likely find friends in Ireland and Northern Europe and farther afield. While the economic outlook for an independent Scotland would likely deteriorate a little at first from its U.K. standards, it's also very likely that Scotland would find trade partners relatively easy and bounce back in short order.
As for domestic matters: I have a hard time believing that Scotland would not be able to maintain social unity. There don't appear to be any substantial problems with Scottish leadership or infrastructure. Moreover, given the Scottish National Party's long track record in government, they are highly likely to be fully capable of governing a post-British Scotland. The security context is a little trickier. How would the British military be divided? What would the relationship of an independent Scotland be to NATO? Would Scotland be forced to hand over British nukes presently stored there? All of these questions would have to be answered clearly.
Puerto Rico: 2/8
Given recent United Nations statements about Puerto Rico's right to independence, I suspect the island would have an easy time seeking recognition by the international community. If voted independent by referendum, The United States might even treat the split amicably. The surrounding Caribbean region would likely welcome a free Puerto Rico into its community of states. However, Puerto Rico is economically reliant on the United States for its sustainment. Its institutional strength, political leadership, and security are all connected to dependence on the U.S. As the wide range of political opinions on the island and among the diaspora indicate, social unity may be a hard slog in an independent Puerto Rico. Then again, maybe not. I admit ignorance on this note.
Texas: 6/8
Given the caricatures of Texas and the Texan identity, I have difficulty envisioning that much of the International community is amenable to a free Texas. However, I would be less surprised if Texas republicans threw out their strict immigration stances in exchange for friendly trade relations with Mexico and the Caribbean. I would be astonished if secession didn't make strange bedfellows in this case. Economically, I think Texas can probably hold its own to a more considerable extent than many people give it credit. Regarding leadership, institutions, and politics, it's not dramatically different in structure than the rest of the United States. It'd be fine.
Like Puerto Rico, Texas' present security is entirely rooted in its membership in the United States. Like Scotland, there are a lot of unanswered questions about how military resources would be divided if Texas were cut loose. Add to that that the case law regarding why Texas cannot lawfully secede was written while the blood of at least 750,000 Americans was not yet washed out from American soil. Almost inevitably, a Texan attempt at secession would result in a second civil war. Add to this the impacts of America's culture on the Texan identity and self-perception, and I'm not sure that social unity would be easy to obtain.
Conclusion
This has been a rough, back-of-the-envelope read of these movements on these eight factors. I hope to delve into all of these dimensions in the future. For now, however, I wanted to demonstrate this specific framework for measuring the potential efficacy of independence movements. Like any academic framework, it'll be interesting to see if this one is bourne out by history.